House prices to peak in one capital

One capital city’s housing market is “nearing a peak and could be entering a slump”, according to a new report.

The latest CoreLogic-Moody’s Analytics Australia Home Value Index Forecast said Melbourne’s housing market is close to peaking and could see a slump in values due to “high incoming supply”, with the capital expected to see home values grow 7.1 per cent this year before falling 0.2 per cent in 2017 – a significant decline from the 9.9 per cent growth recorded in 2015.

Meanwhile, Sydney is expected to see the biggest house price growth of all the capitals in 2016 and 2017 at 7.3 per cent and 6.7 per cent respectively – less than half of the growth the city experienced in 2015 (14.9 per cent).

Brisbane’s home values are set to increase by 5.8 per cent this year and by 6.1 per cent in 2017, following 3.8 per cent growth in 2015.

Adelaide is predicted to witness steady growth of 5.0 per cent in 2016 and 5.1 per cent in 2017, after recording 2.4 per cent growth last year.

Hobart’s housing market growth has been forecast to hit 4.3 per cent this year before winding back to 3.3 per cent in 2017 – up from 1.0 per cent in 2015.

Following just 1.9 per cent growth in home values last year, the ACT is expected to see an uplift to 4.1 per cent in 2016, while a 3.1 per cent increase is forecast for next year.

Perth and Darwin are the only capitals predicted to experience declining home value growth this year, dropping by 0.1 per cent and 0.7 per cent respectively (down from -0.9 per cent and -2.5 per cent), but positive growth is expected for both cities in 2017, with Perth’s home values to rise 4.1 per cent and Darwin’s to increase by 2.9 per cent.

[Related: ‘Ingredients in place for Australian housing crash’]

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