Slow growth for housing: JP Morgan

The outlook for Australian housing volume growth remains challenged, according to a recent report.

The J.P. Morgan/Fujitsu Consulting Australian Mortgage Industry Report found that volume growth remains below the long run trend – with limited acceleration expected going forward.

“Government support in the form of the first homeowners grant saw growth rates modestly recover to a three month annualised growth rate of eight per cent since October 2008, however we see median loan growth stabilising between six per cent and seven per cent over the course of 2010 and 2011,” JP Morgan banking analyst Scott Manning said.

The report also noted that expectations of household de-gearing have proven unfounded to date.

“Housing outstandings as a percentage of disposable income rebounded to an all time high at approximately 150 per cent.

Household interest payments as a percentage of disposable income, while falling dramatically following initial rate cuts, hold the potential to return to approximately 11 per cent of total disposable income if interest rates increase by two per cent,” Mr Manning said

The outlook for Australian housing volume growth remains challenged, according to a recent report.

The J.P. Morgan/Fujitsu Consulting Australian Mortgage Industry Report found that volume growth remains below the long run trend – with limited acceleration expected going forward.

“Government support in the form of the first homeowners grant saw growth rates modestly recover to a three month annualised growth rate of eight per cent since October 2008, however we see median loan growth stabilising between six per cent and seven per cent over the course of 2010 and 2011,” JP Morgan banking analyst Scott Manning said.

The report also noted that expectations of household de-gearing have proven unfounded to date.

“Housing outstandings as a percentage of disposable income rebounded to an all time high at approximately 150 per cent.

Household interest payments as a percentage of disposable income, while falling dramatically following initial rate cuts, hold the potential to return to approximately 11 per cent of total disposable income if interest rates increase by two per cent,” Mr Manning said

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