A CoreLogic analysis of settled transaction data for residential property has unearthed an interesting trend: that settled transactions have been losing ground for longer than the recent rate of dwelling value decline.
CoreLogic’s latest Property Pulse details that the number of settled transactions, since peaking in 2015, has been on its way down, with the number in the last year to May 2018 down by 7.7 per cent to 465,788 houses and units.
What this means for investors looking to buy is that there is more ground for negotiating a price. Likewise, sellers will need to be able to find a compromise of price when selling a property; otherwise, they may be on the market for a while longer. Hence, CoreLogic research analyst Cameron Kusher recommended sellers should have a finely tuned marketing strategy with an appropriate price.
The Property Pulse breaks down the state of settled transactions in each capital city:
Settled transactions declined by 13.5 per cent over the last year to May 2018 in Sydney, and this even includes a slight rebound in transactions due to the surge of first home buyers in July of last year.
On a month-to-month basis, monthly sales volumes have been consistently lower than the 10-year average since May 2017.
“While there is likely to be some revision as unsettled sales flow through, it remains likely that ultimately sales volumes are lower over the year,” Mr Kusher said.
Settled transactions declined by 12.9 per cent over the last year to May 2018 in Melbourne, which the Property Pulse attributes in part to unit construction and strong demand and low supply of available housing for sale.
Mr Kusher compared Melbourne to Sydney and said that when off-the-plan properties are completed, transaction volumes should trend upward.
Settled transactions declined by 12.1 per cent over the last year to May 2018 in Brisbane, with the monthly sales volumes down when compared to the decade average. Over the next few years, volumes are likely to moderate slightly, but not enough to see a rise.
Settled transactions rose by 2.5 per cent over the last year to May 2018 in Adelaide, one of the only two cities to record a rise.
Settled transactions rose by 1.4 per cent over the last year to May 2018 in Perth, indicating the turnaround is still beginning.
“As the housing market slowly shows signs of improvement, sales volumes may continue to climb,” Mr Kusher said.
Settled transactions declined by 7.4 per cent over the last year to May 2018 in Hobart due to strong demand and little stock to be sold.
Settled transactions declined by 5.8 per cent over the last year to May 2018 in Darwin, although an increase of transactions over the last few months has been noticed.
Settled transactions declined by 10 per cent over the last year to May 2018 in Canberra, with month-to-month transactions being right on their decade average.