January is usually a softer month for housing markets. Sales volumes are lighter, many decision makers are still shaking off the festive season, and it can feel like the market is idling until February. But Brisbane didn’t really follow that script this year, writes REBAA president and Streamline Property Buyers managing director Melinda Jennison.
From 5 January onwards, buyer activity in the affordable and mid-range segments came out of the gate strong. We saw early listings snapped up quickly by buyers who swapped beach days for open homes, and who were ready to act decisively when quality stock hit the market. When you layer that urgency over Brisbane’s still-tight supply conditions, it doesn’t take much for competition to flare.
The headline numbers back that up. Cotality’s January read shows Brisbane dwelling values up 1.6 per cent for the month, 5.1 per cent over the quarter, and 15.7 per cent over the year, taking Brisbane’s median dwelling value to $1,054,555.
That is not the kind of start you see in a market that’s “cooling off”.
What’s important here is context. Brisbane isn’t the only capital city recording growth, but the pace and consistency of Brisbane’s gains continue to stand out. Across January, the combined capitals rose 0.7 per cent, with Brisbane outperforming the broader benchmark (and sitting behind Perth, which again posted the strongest monthly growth at 1.9 per cent). Sydney and Melbourne also returned to modest positive movement (0.4 per cent each), which is a shift from the weakness seen in parts of late 2025.
Over the quarter, Brisbane’s 5.1 per cent result again places it among the stronger capitals, with Perth leading at 5.7 per cent, and the combined capitals recording a much lower 2.5 per cent. Over the year, Brisbane remains firmly in the top tier at 15.7 per cent, again behind Perth (18.2 per cent) but ahead of most other capitals on annual growth.
That’s the broader national picture, but Brisbane’s market also has its own rhythm, and this is where local nuance matters.
Herron Todd White’s latest Month in Review commentary reinforces what we’re seeing on the ground. Brisbane’s performance through 2025 was underpinned by real drivers, not hype. They point to population growth, constrained housing supply, elevated construction costs, and Brisbane’s increasing profile ahead of the 2032 Olympics as key factors supporting demand across both owner-occupier and investor cohorts.
They also highlight that the standout story has been the strength of entry-level property, particularly in more affordable attached housing, where buyer demand has been fuelled by rents and tight vacancy conditions.
Their National Property Clock placements add another layer of insight. Brisbane is sitting among markets that are still performing strongly, rather than drifting into a true downswing phase, which aligns with the price momentum we are seeing in both houses and units.
Source: Herron Todd White
Finally, looking ahead, the KPMG Residential Property Market Outlook (January 2026) is very clear that Brisbane’s strength is expected to extend beyond 2026, supported by ongoing population inflows and supply constraints. KPMG’s forecast has Brisbane house prices rising around 11 per cent through 2026 and units around 8 per cent, before moderating in 2027 (with houses still forecast to grow strongly).
They also note that affordability pressures are likely to shape a “two-speed” market where the more affordable segment outperforms, while growth at the upper end is capped by borrowing capacity.
That theme, affordable product outperforming, is exactly what Brisbane has been doing for some time now.
Brisbane dwelling values
Brisbane’s overall dwelling market strengthened again in January.
Cotality’s data shows Brisbane dwelling values increased 1.6 per cent over the month, 5.1 per cent over the quarter, and 15.7 per cent over the year, taking the median dwelling value to $1,054,555.