While tree-change and sea-change levels have fallen compared with 12 months ago, regional migration numbers continue to significantly outpace those in capital cities, according to recent data – providing a glimpse into areas where supply is set to boom.
According to the Regional Movers Index, Victoria, NSW, and Queensland were the most popular locations for migration away from the capital cities, hosting the nation’s top five local government areas (LGAs) for sea-and-tree-changers.
The report found that the Sunshine Coast, with its median dwelling price of $1,193,000, remained the most popular location for city-dwellers looking to move away from the capital cities.
The region accounted for almost one-tenth of the nation’s total net migration, with an inflow of 8.9 per cent.
Greater Geelong was the second-most-sought-after destination with 6.8 per cent migration, followed by the Fraser Coast, with a rapidly increasing 3.9 per cent, rounding out the top three.
Lake Macquarie fell from its prior place as the third most popular region down to the fourth, while Moorabool, to the west of Melbourne, completed the report's top five.
Regional Australia Institute CEO Liz Ritchie said regional movers had been considering locations farther from the capitals, leading to greater diversification among top destinations.
“We are seeing a trend of capital-city dwellers still choosing popular locations, but regional-to-regional movers looking elsewhere,” Ritchie said.
“Queensland remains popular, but regional movers are going further out from the Sunshine Coast in search of affordability.”
Ritchie said changes in regional migration trends had led to a significant shift in capital city population inflows and outflows.
“While most city leavers are from Sydney and Melbourne, the other capitals are also seeing outflows,” she said.
“We are also seeing residents of Brisbane and Perth seek out the regions in greater numbers, a trend which is gaining momentum.
She said that while Brisbane had typically attracted population inflows, it had begun to see an outflow to regional areas.
Similarly, Perth had shifted from a positive population inflow to a more balanced migration flow.
Capital-to-regional migration accounted for 11.6 per cent of all relocations between LGAs nationwide, marking its second-highest share since the end of 2022, and outpaced regional-to-capital relocations by 31 per cent.
The report found that population migration away from the typical hotspots had also increased, with regional Tasmania, NSW, Victoria and Western Australia recording the strongest net growth.
Tasmania’s Meander Valley had seen an internal migration inflow grow by 500 per cent, with Lismore, Lodden and Bridgetown-Greenbushes all increasing by more than 400 per cent.
Ritchie said that, despite December typically being a softer period for relocation, the data showed that the seasonal drop in migration was smaller than in the previous two December quarters.
“What hasn’t declined is interest in a regional move.”
“Capital-to-region migration remains robust, recording the second-highest migration figures since the end of the pandemic,” Ritchie concluded.
