Approved Chinese investment in Australian homes has collapsed by about 65 per cent in two years, but one industry figure says the official data hides the true scale of overseas demand.
Recent figures released by the Treasury have indicated that Chinese investment in Australian real estate has plunged nearly two-thirds in two years, though one industry expert has warned that the figures likely “understate” the true value as buyers seek to bypass the Foreign Investment Review Board (FIRB) approvals.
Treasury figures released this week show Chinese approvals for residential real estate totalled $900 million in 2025–26, down $1.7 billion from $2.6 billion in 2023–24. Meanwhile, the number of approvals fell from 1,998 to 785 over the same period, a drop of about 61 per cent, according to the Treasury’s quarterly foreign investment report.
Despite this, China remains the biggest foreign source of residential investment, ahead of Taiwan on $500 million and Vietnam on $300 million. Indonesia and India each recorded $200 million.
The decline follows a ban on foreign investors buying established homes, introduced in April 2025. Daniel Ho, co-founder of Chinese buyer portal Juwai IQI, said the ban has been extended to June 2029, leaving new housing as the only option for most foreign buyers.
“Australia’s restrictions, duties, and fees have become prohibitive to most foreign buyers,” Ho said.
He argues the drop reflects a change in tactics, not a loss of appetite. Buyers are waiting until they secure permanent residency, at which point they are no longer counted as foreign.
“Most now wait until they hold permanent residency, which removes the FIRB process, the foreign buyer fees, and the FIRB application fees,” he said.
There is little sign of a rebound. Chinese approvals in the June quarter slipped to 147 from 156 in the previous quarter, with value flat at $200 million. Taiwan’s rose to 102 from 76.
Treasury cautions that its figures reflect investor intentions, “not actual purchases”, and some approved deals may not proceed.
Residential property is also a small part of the foreign investment picture. It made up $4.7 billion of the $277.5 billion approved in 2025–26, or about 1.7 per cent. Commercial real estate attracted $67.2 billion.
Nor has Chinese capital left Australia. Approved Chinese commercial investment rose to $14.1 billion in 2025–26 from $2.6 billion the year before, although Treasury notes some values in its tables may be anomalous.
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