Agents still expecting peak-market prices may be setting themselves up for a long listing and lower values in a few months’ time, according to John McGrath ahead of AREC 2026.
Australia’s property market is shifting into a more challenging phase, and according to John McGrath, those agents who succeed will be those who adapt quickly, price accurately, and operate with discipline.
The immediate priority for agents is resetting pricing conversations, particularly as buyers become more cautious and vendors struggle to adjust expectations formed during stronger market conditions.
And those who fail this will not only face longer listing campaigns, but may have to settle for even further reduced prices in several months’ time.
“Have a real, authentic, honest conversation based around recent data and talking to vendors about pricing,” the industry veteran said.
“This is a market that if it were to decline over the next six months, if you don’t price it right and sell it now, you’ll regret it in three to six months’ time.”
See John McGrath speak at AREC here.
In rising markets, agents can sometimes miss pricing and still recover, but McGrath warns that declining conditions remove that safety net. So what does this mean for agents?
Current market conditions require agents to anchor vendor expectations to current conditions rather than recent peaks, especially as buyer sensitivity increases.
“You need to have the property priced at today’s market, not at 2025 prices,” McGrath said. “The problem is people that have been on the market for six, eight, 12 weeks who were hoping to get late '25 prices, they’re chasing the market now.”
“And I think that’s a major mistake. Having been through six cycles, you don’t chase the market down, you adjust to where the market is today, and you get out of the market if you’re a seller.”
Despite softer conditions, McGrath remains confident that high-performing agents can maintain results, provided they adapt, stay data-led, and communicate consistently with vendors.
Beyond the pricing, tomorrow’s successful agents will double down on ethics, compliance and operational discipline, marking a shift in how real estate businesses are managed. He argues that the industry has moved decisively away from informal or loosely managed practices, with enforcement and scrutiny increasing.
“I think compliance with AML as well as the various Fair Trading-type legislation, agents just have to be complying and they have to run a clean business,” he said. “I think too many agents in the past were getting by not running a tight ship. And I think all that thankfully has ended.”
Ethical standards, he adds, are now a commercial advantage for agents looking to grow their sales pipeline, with clients prioritising trust and transparency.
“I would encourage all agents just to run a totally compliant, ethical, transparent business because you’re going to get caught out if you’re not,” he said. “Certainly, just people are looking for agents with authenticity and integrity to deal with.”
This emphasis on discipline extends to McGrath’s broader philosophy of focusing only on controllable factors in uncertain conditions.
Looking ahead, McGrath offers a measured outlook: short-term volatility, followed by longer-term stabilisation and recovery.
He believes the market has already begun adjusting, with anecdotal evidence suggesting sharper declines than official data currently reflects.
“I think we’ve already seen a material pullback,” he said. “I think we might see a little bit more of a reduction of capital values in the second half of this calendar year.”
In Sydney, McGrath remains structurally bullish, citing strong demand, international appeal, and constrained supply.
However, he warns that policy changes could further reduce investor activity, tightening rental supply and increasing pressure on tenants.
McGrath’s comments come ahead of this year’s AREC, the nation’s largest gathering of Australia’s top-performing agents.
The event will bring together thousands of agents, alongside global speakers, high-performing practitioners, and emerging technology providers.
“AREC is a unique event because we’ll have 5,000 people, most of whom are high-performing agents in a single room,” he said.
So how can you get the most out of the conference?
For attendees, McGrath stressed that success at the event depends on intent, preparation, and active networking rather than passive attendance.
He encourages agents to treat AREC as a strategic opportunity to build relationships and benchmark themselves against the best in the industry.
“So firstly, I’d be trying to identify if there are any agents in Australia that you love the way they operate,” he said. “I’d see if there’s any chance you could meet up to shake their hand, introduce yourself, and swap cards.”
“Don’t just see it as an educational event; see it as a networking event,” he said.
He also highlights the importance of engaging with new tools and technologies showcased at the expo as the industry continues to evolve.
“The trade expo there is going to have some really leading-edge new technology and suppliers that you need to be looking into,” he said.
McGrath advises agents to arrive with a clear self-assessment of their business and growth constraints – and to use the conference floor to their advantage.
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