Agents could face a quieter spring, with vendors holding back as softer values, cautious buyers, and an uncertain rates outlook weigh on listing activity.
The spring listing surge could be weaker than expected, leaving agents to navigate a market where vendors are increasingly reluctant to make a move.
According to the latest data from Cotality, just over 33,000 properties were newly listed in the past four weeks, an 8.2 per cent drop compared to the five-year average and 2 per cent below the same period in 2025.
Cotality head of research Gerard Burg said that while the warmer weather would typically see “green shoots” emerge in the property market, 2026 may tell a different story.
“The spring and summer season historically sees vendor activity rise, with a surge in new listings and an increase in auction volumes following the winter lull, particularly in the southern states,” Burg said.
“This spring could prove to be cooler than the past, with potential vendors assessing a market with falling values, cautious and constrained buyers, and an uncertain rates outlook.”
The data showed that Sydney was the capital most hit by the decline, with listings over 14 per cent below average in the four weeks leading to 23 August.
Melbourne was the next most impacted capital, with listings down by more than nine per cent over the same period, followed by Brisbane with a 5 per cent decline.
Burg said that in contrast, vendors in Adelaide have been slower to respond to the shifting market, with listings around four per cent above average over the period.
“This supply response has lagged the evident decline in demand from its peaks in late 2025,” he said.
“This is clear in the listings data, with the total stock of properties available for sale increasing in recent months, even as new listings have faded.”
According to Burg, real estate professionals faced a vastly different spring than 12 months ago, following the reversal of Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rate cuts in 2025.
While 12 months ago, home values were rising, consumer sentiment was stronger, and investors were highly active, Burg said the reacceleration typically seen in the spring period would likely be more moderate than usual.
“In contrast, as this winter comes to an end, we are already four months into a national downturn in home values, with demand impacted by affordability constraints, the reversal of last year’s interest rate cuts, higher fuel costs and pessimistic consumer sentiment.
Burg said that while the warmer weather would usually bring vendors out of hibernation, this year was likely to see more caution across the market.
He said that vendors assessing the market would see fewer buyers active, while those looking to transact held the balance of power.
“Those owners that can afford to wait for stronger market conditions may make that choice, leading to a continuation of the weaker trend in new listings evident more recently,” he said.
Conversely, he said that spring could present an opportunity for buyers who felt confident to make moves in the current market.
“With less competition from other buyers, lower housing prices and plenty of leverage at the negotiating table, buyers are well and truly in the driver’s seat across most markets.”
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