Is Brisbane’s boom over?

As the market continues to cool after prolonged growth, Brisbane led the drop in values amongst the mid-sized capitals, with Adelaide and Perth also down by 0.8 per cent over the month.

Despite declining prices, Brisbane remained the second-most expensive capital in the country, with a median dwelling value of $1,080,142.

Real Estate Institute of Queensland (REIQ) CEO Antonia Mercorella said that while Brisbane’s property market had declined compared to its previous boom, the previous quarter had been characterised by minor movements.

“Queensland’s property market has spent several years operating at full throttle, so any return to a more regular pace will take a bit of an adjustment – especially when it comes to buyers’ and sellers’ expectations,” Mercorella said.

“It is important to put these results in perspective and not view them through the doom and gloom lens.”

“While the quarterly medians have edged back in some locations, they represent a steadying market. After years of rapid gains, the market is taking a breath.”

Mercorella said she had received feedback from agents that the market was becoming more measured.

She said the return to a slower, more methodical market was not unusual for long-term agents, but could be unfamiliar territory for those newer to the profession.

“Agents are telling us the buying frenzy is well behind us. It’s a return to traditional, old-fashioned real estate with more rounded campaigns, more due diligence being undertaken and longer days on market,” she said.

“It’s the kind of market that Queensland operated in for many years before the extraordinary conditions of the past six years.”

In addition to the change in values, the data showed a significant decrease in home sales in Brisbane, with an estimated sales volume drop of more than 20 per cent.

Across the country, Perth and Sydney recorded a similar drop in sales.

Cotality Australia head of research Tim Lawless said the softer trend in values was a result of the weaker transaction activity.

“Sales volumes are tracking well below both year-ago levels and the five-year average, which points to a clear reduction in buyer demand,” Lawless said.

More opportunities across the state

While Brisbane had been in decline, Mercorella said that a state as large as Queensland was made up of many individual markets.

“While we talk about the Queensland market as a whole, it’s unrealistic to think you can paint the entire state with the same broad brush - given the sheer size and diversity of Queensland, the markets are much more nuanced,” Mercorella said.

Mercorella said the next two quarters of data would be telling on whether the slower conditions would become an established trend or prove temporary and re-accelerate in Spring.

She said that many of the fundamentals that supported Brisbane’s resurgence during its previous median drop in 2022 remained in place today.

According to Mercorella, the current cautious market conditions had not placed either buyers or sellers in an advantageous position.

She said that sellers would have to contend with a smaller, more hesitant pool of buyers, and while purchasers may have more time and negotiating power, uncertainty about finance and affordability constraints has limited their ability to enter the market.

If the market was going to bounce back following the softer conditions, Mercorella said consumer confidence would be a major factor.

“People still need to buy, sell, upsize, downsize and relocate, and Queensland continues to offer the population growth, employment, lifestyle factors and Olympic optimism that support housing demand and growth in the long term.”

“While conditions may be less intense than we’ve become accustomed to, the fundamentals underpinning Queensland property remain remarkably solid.”