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Not better, not worse: 2024 rental forecast

By Juliet Helmke
12 January 2024 | 11 minute read
eleanor creagh proptrack reb zkoiqv

A slight easing of vacancy rates in December does little to disguise the abysmal figures of 2023.

Data from PropTrack indicated that the national rental vacancy rate lifted 0.05 percentage points to 1.12 per cent in December 2023, but that ultimately rentals were 0.13 per cent tighter than a year ago.

The firm also noted that even in the markets that saw the highest proportion of rentals come onto the market, any movement was minimal.

Sydney saw the second greatest increase of the capitals in December, climbing 0.09 percentage points to 1.37 per cent.

Melbourne’s rental vacancy rate was largely unchanged throughout the month, rising a small 0.01 percentage point to 1.18 per cent, after declining 0.33 percentage point through the year.

Brisbane’s rental market was also extremely tight, with vacancies holding below 1 per cent after rising a small 0.02 percentage points in December.

But it’s in Adelaide and Perth where the figures were the most concerning both for renters and the health of the market. Vacancy rates finished the year below 0.75 per cent. A minor easing of 0.02 percentage points and 0.06 percentage points respectively did little to bring relief to the cities’ residents.

It’s a similar story in the regions, where vacancy rates eased 0.06 percentage points in December, though ultimately tightened by 0.07 percentage points throughout the year.

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PropTrack senior economist and the report’s author, Eleanor Creagh, spoke to what these figures mean for home hunters on the ground.

“Low rental vacancy rates are indicative of tight rental markets, with tenants competing for limited stock. These conditions made it difficult for many to find an available rental property and drove strong price growth throughout 2023. Many tenants are likely to be spending an increasing portion of their income on rent, placing pressure on household budgets,” she said.

“With the number of vacant properties remaining at low levels, tenants will continue to face challenging conditions,” she added.

Ms Creagh opined, however, that at the very least conditions were not expected to become materially worse as they did over the course of the past two years.

“Conditions in the rental market are unlikely to deteriorate at the same pace as they did in 2022 and 2023, meaning rental prices could stabilise and increase at a slower rate than the past year,” she said.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR


Juliet Helmke

Based in Sydney, Juliet Helmke has a broad range of reporting and editorial experience across the areas of business, technology, entertainment and the arts. She was formerly Senior Editor at The New York Observer.

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