Capital city properties to remain hot in 2026

The Price Predictor Index assigned each region a ranking based on its predicted price growth for the year and placed it in one of three categories: winners, steady, or losers.

The new-year predictions found that while the majority of the nation’s capitals would remain “winners” heading into 2026, Perth was the only one that had fallen to the “steady” category

Hotspotting founder Terry Ryder said that the nationwide market was uniquely positioned heading into the new year.

“I see the current situation as highly unusual, with strong buyer demand in all eight capital cities and six regional market jurisdictions assessed – therefore, there are no apparent major market losers as we head into 2026.”

“We have seldom seen such a universal strength in markets nationwide, with no withering major markets anywhere in Australia – not even during that short COVID-19 boom was sales activity so universally strong.”

Hotspotting director Tim Graham said the combination of population growth and heightened demand driven by lower interest rates and the introduction of government schemes had pushed the property market higher.

“The search for affordability is increasingly a driver of buyer demand, placing greater focus on cheaper house markets and on unit markets in locations where houses are very expensive,” Graham said.

“For example, the strongest market sectors in both Melbourne and Brisbane are outer-ring housing markets and near-city unit markets.”

Here is what will happen nationwide in 2026:

Darwin

With a positive ranking of 74 per cent, Graham said that Darwin’s property market remained the hottest in the nation, having risen to unprecedented levels in 2025.

“In the past two years, the Darwin residential market typically recorded between 530 and 640 sales per quarter, but in the past four quarters total sales have more than doubled,” Graham said.

“In fact, the latest quarter is 147 per cent higher than the same time last year.”

“We also highlighted Darwin’s upturn in PPI a year ago, with the startling rise in its market emphatically confirmed three months ago.”

Graham said the uptick in the Darwin market has coincided with a significant increase in unit sales.

Hobart

Ryder said that Hobart's recovery was well underway, with sales activity rising by 22 per cent in the most recent quarter, 29 per cent higher than a year ago.

“Suburbs with positive rankings have improved from 53 per cent to 72 per cent, while those with negative rankings have dropped from 29 per cent to 12 per cent in the latest quarter,” Ryder said.

“The more affordable locations of Greater Hobart are showing the strongest uplift. For example, in the Glenorchy local government area (LGA), seven of the nine markets in our analysis had positive rankings, with a 31 per cent rise in sales numbers in the latest quarter.”

Brisbane

Graham said the latest quarterly results showed Brisbane was at its strongest since the COVID-19 boom.

“A 14 per cent quarter-on-quarter rise in total sales across Greater Brisbane means sales activity is the highest since 2021,” he said.

“Seven out of 10 markets have positive rankings in our analysis, to rank Greater Brisbane as one of the strongest markets in the nation.”

“All five municipalities that make up the Greater Brisbane area have strong numbers with identical patterns of strong increases in sales numbers in the past two quarters.”

Melbourne

Ryder said that Melbourne’s revival had ramped up in the back half of 2025, with 70 per cent of markets recording positive rankings, climbing from 64 per cent three months ago and 51 per cent six months ago.

“The total number of sales has dropped marginally, compared to the previous quarter, but remains 15 per cent higher than six months ago,” he said.

Ryder said that the suburbs with the most activity were outer-ring housing markets that were relatively affordable, such as Casey, Frankston, Dandenong, Hume, Wyndham, Melton, and Whittlesea.

Similarly, he recommended looking into the inner-city suburbs of Melbourne, Yarra, Whitehorse, and Kingston.

Adelaide

After five years of rising property prices, Ryder said Adelaide showed no signs of slowing.

“Indeed, the market has strengthened further in the latest quarter, with another increase in sales volumes and a rise in the number of markets with positive rankings.”

“There are growth markets right across the Greater Adelaide metropolitan area, with few LGAs not showing ongoing strength in buyer demand.”

According to Ryder, there was already strong activity going on at the higher end of the market, and it was beginning to pick up in more affordable suburbs.

“At the same time, the lower end of the market continues to attract rising activity, despite the price rises of the past five years, eliminating the cheap buying options that previously prevailed in the city’s northern suburbs.”

Sydney

Data showed that total sales activity in Greater Sydney has grown over the past two quarters, with the latest quarter sitting 25 per cent higher than six months ago.

Graham said that Sydney had maintained its “winner” status, with 63 per cent of the city's markets receiving a positive ranking.

“The greater Sydney market had been trending down, hitting the bottom of the cycle in the March 2025 quarter, but has been rising since then,” Graham said.

“Higher buyer demand for attached dwellings is a major factor in the Sydney market revival, with 67 per cent of the Greater Sydney unit markets in our analysis recording positive rankings, compared to 60 per cent of house markets.”

Canberra

Ryder said the Canberra market had moved into a rising phase, noting that it had begun to stir in the Spring report.

”The national capital is now one of Australia’s rising property markets, with residential sales that are now close to the peak of the COVID-19 boom in 2021, driven by significant increases in demand for units,” Ryder said.

“Markets with positive rankings are now 63 per cent of the total, compared with 49 per cent three months ago.”

Units in Canberra have emerged as the standout market, with Belconnen, Bradon, Coombs, Dickson, Greenway, Kingston, Phillip and Wright all set for strong growth in 2026.

Perth

Graham said that, despite a slight rise in sales activity, Perth was the only capital with a positive ranking below 50 per cent, placing it in the “steady” category.

“47 per cent of Perth markets have positive rankings, up from 41 per cent in our Spring report three months ago, but well below the levels achieved by most other market jurisdictions across Australia,”

According to Graham, the Perth market has trended downward in sales volume since peaking in 2023.

“However, the past two quarters have halted that, with small increases in sales,” Graham concluded.