Brisbane and Perth sink as worst 40-year downturn closes in 

According to Cotality’s latest Home Value Index, Brisbane’s values fell 2 per cent in October to $1,018,401, while Perth’s declined 1.7 per cent to a median of $942,018.

Both cities surpassed Sydney, which previously led the downturn, but recorded a lower monthly decline of 1.6 per cent.

Meanwhile, capital city values fell 8.1 per cent in seven months, the fastest decline in the past 40 years.

Cotality’s head of research, Gerard Burg, said the record for price declines across all downturns in the past 40 years, from peak to trough, was 8.2 per cent.

“So we would expect next month to see the largest downturn on record,” he told REB.

Conditions across mid-sized capitals deteriorate

Burg said that as interest rates rose and affordability pressures worsened, Brisbane and Perth’s growth in past years had likely priced buyers out of the market.

“Both of those cities have really seen this rapid transition through the course of 2026 from a very tight market to a very loose market, and that’s led to this deterioration in values that we’ve seen,” he said.

The data showed Brisbane recorded one of the most significant annual declines in sales activity, down 29 per cent from a year ago.

With listings up 25 per cent above the five-year average, Burg said Brisbane’s market showed the clearest evidence of weakening buyer demand of all the capitals.

“When you compare where things were back at the start of the year, we were close to 45 to 50 per cent below average, so a lot of stock has come onto the market,” Burg said.

He said the rise in available supply came from a reasonable number of vendors continuing to put their homes on the market, while dwellings took increasingly longer to sell.

“So the time on market has been increasing, and it really speaks to this greater power that buyers now have, but they’ve got much more choice in the market,” he said.

Recently, Perth also recorded significant declines, with Domain’s latest data showing the city fell by 7.4 per cent, from $88,664 to $1.115 million over the September quarter.

Despite Perth’s listings being only six per cent above the five-year average, Burg said conditions had changed drastically since mid-January, when available stock was 55 per cent below average.

“Listings have been this enormous movement higher, and it’s really just taken the wind out of the sails,” he said.

Buyers Edge Property director, Jason Titus, said an investor exodus had contributed to the surge in available dwellings on the market.

“Stock levels in Perth in the last three months have skyrocketed because established property investors are moving their money out of Perth and into the affordable market in Victoria,” he said.

Fastest downturn in 40 years

In the three months to October, national sales fell 23 per cent year-on-year, while slower absorption has pushed capital city listings to their highest level for this time of year since 2019.

Cotality said buyers had much more stock to choose from, giving them more leverage during negotiations and decreasing the urgency to buy.

New listings have especially risen in Adelaide over the spring season, with Burg suggesting the city could soon join Brisbane and Perth if the trend continued.

In October, values in South Australia’s capital were down 1.2 per cent, reaching a median of $916,860.

Despite being overtaken in the pace of price falls, Burg said Sydney still saw significant declines over the past month, plummeting 1.6 per cent.

According to Cotality, sales activity in Sydney was down by 30 per cent compared to last year.

In sharp contrast, Canberra and Melbourne recorded more modest declines, with Canberra down 0.7 per cent, Melbourne down 0.8 per cent over October.

“Compared to Brisbane and Perth, Melbourne has seen fewer new listings for an extended period of time, and the total stock available is now sitting around about three per cent below the five-year average,” Burg said.