Despite the recent market slowdown, the number of people losing money on property has continued to fall, but COVID-19-era purchasers have been the most exposed to losses.
New data has shown that recent buyers were the most vulnerable to property profit losses in the March quarter, with many having purchased during the COVID-19-era market peak.
According to Cotality’s Pain & Gain Report, nationally, resale losses were at 4 per cent, the lowest outcome since March 2005, while the median loss was $45,000.
It showed that loss-making house resales recorded a median hold period of 4.3 years in the March quarter, placing many of the purchases around the peak in late 2021 and early 2022.
By contrast, properties sold at a profit had typically been held for 9.1 years.
Cotality’s head of research, Gerard Burg, said those who purchased closer to the market peak had less time to build equity and were more exposed to market fluctuations.
He said data showed the impact that changing market conditions had on financial outcomes, particularly for those with shorter ownership periods.
“The figures illustrate the value of a buy-and-hold approach to property ownership. Time remains one of the most effective ways to absorb market cycles and improve the likelihood of a positive resale outcome,” he said.
“Housing values continued to rise through most of 2025, and many sellers have benefited from holding their property through multiple growth cycles, which has allowed them to build significant equity over time.”
Burg said profitability was likely to be further impacted as the national market headed towards a downturn, leading to lower home values across the country.
“History shows us there have been ten downturns in the national market in the past 40 years, with values declining between 3 and 8 per cent.”
Ahead of the projected market downturn, Burg said those who accessed the 5 per cent deposit scheme faced the risk of negative equity.
“This will reduce the likelihood, even if only marginally, of a profitable resale in coming quarters.”
Ultimately, he said the data showed the path to profitability was typically driven by the ability to hold through different cycles, with the median hold time for a profitable resale in the March quarter being almost nine years.
“Shorter hold periods increase the risk of a loss, particularly if the purchase has been made near the peak of an individual cycle.”
“So for home owners who have bought near the peak, if there is no immediate pressure to sell, holding is far more likely to be a financially beneficial option.”
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