Seize the moment: Agents’ guide to Darwin’s red-hot market

He said that over his 30 years of experience, he had seen the market experience multiple highs and lows; the current market has been the most exciting period for property.

“We are encountering a totally natural market driven by opportunity, comparable affordability, rental return and genuine purchase value,” Oliver told REB.

Recent data showed that property prices soared nationally in 2025, rising by 8.6 per cent, the strongest calendar-year increase since 2021.

Darwin also led the national capital cities in property value growth for the year, increasing by 18.9 per cent as the market experienced a significant boom.

With rising buyer and rental demand, Oliver said competition was intensified by a critical shortage of supply, as Darwin catches up with the growth seen across other capital cities in recent years.

He said property supply in Darwin was “years behind,” and that with more buyers choosing to stay rather than relocate, this was putting more pressure on property prices and pushing them upward.

“Unlike previous downturns such as 2014-2019, buyers and renters don’t have the luxury of leaving Darwin for more affordable or more available property.”

“The existing housing market is effectively exhausted.”

“Especially as cheaper or more available alternatives across Australia have become virtually impossible to find.”

According to Oliver, the market has become more competitive, agents have had to review their strategy, constantly assessing prospective buyer and tenant interest levels, negotiations, sales and leasing results, seller analysis, and enquiry motivation.

“This allows us to recommend strategies that genuinely give sellers the best chance to maximise their results and make sure we are connecting our clients’ properties with the right buyers and tenants.”

He added that the city has also seen an increase in off-market sales that have been challenging, requiring agents to educate their sellers further on the treaty's benefits and disadvantages.

“We’re continually helping sellers understand the value of on-market campaigns that create competition, compared with the perceived convenience of selling quietly off-market.”

Oliver said that confidence had “well and truly returned” to Darwin, with the potential of strong returns and a fear of high price increases prompting buyers to act swiftly.

“After out-of-area buyers started to re-enter the market in 2023, local investors followed, and in 2025, around 60 per cent of our sales were to investors.”

“While buyer motivations are mixed, several drivers stand out: fear of paying more later, and attractive returns supported by high occupancy.”

Following a surge in buyer interest, Oliver said the agency had to refine its communication across the different sales and property management teams to compare notes on market conditions and client conversations.

“The consistency of reviewing the market also ensures that we are promoting and applying campaign strategies that are market-advanced and forward-thinking, such as the pace of the market rise.”

“We’ve also refined how we communicate and, as a result, are reaching more home owners, targeting specific buyer groups and strengthening connections between landlords and quality tenants.”

“The result has been shorter days on market and stronger matches between properties and people.”

Additionally, to ensure buyers do not miss out on the property, Oliver said agents needed to ensure potential buyers have their finances in order and act with confidence and clear expectations, as hesitation could prove costly.

“A buyer who missed out on a $530,000 property in mid-2025 may now be looking at a figure closer to $680,000 for an identical offering today.”

“In short, if 2026 presents the right opportunity, decisiveness and preparation will matter. In this market, hesitation can carry a six-figure cost for some buyers.”

For sellers, Oliver said education was equally important and suggested researching market drivers and price movements to ensure decisions aligned with their personal goals.

“For many households, the traditional strategy of ‘selling in Darwin and buying elsewhere’ simply isn’t a realistic upgrade path anymore.”

“While Darwin remains relatively affordable, selling property here and buying elsewhere isn’t always easier or cheaper.”

“Owner-occupiers and investors are competing for the same quality properties, and most well-priced homes across the Darwin suburbs are selling.”

Following its strong performance throughout the past 12 months, Oliver said he saw little evidence that the market would slow in 2026.

“Looking ahead, the Darwin value proposition is that our properties remain extremely attractive and are more accessible.”

“Combine this with the unique top-end lifestyle, and Darwin remains an extremely attractive proposition for investors, owner occupiers or renters, while supply is still years away from exceeding demand,” Oliver concluded.