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Could the election outcome hit commercial confidence?

By Staff Reporter
12 May 2022 | 1 minute read
Adam Grbcic

A commercial sales specialist tackles the question that comes around every election: how will the instatement of a new party to lead the Australian government – or a continuation of the old – impact the market?

Adam Grbcic, Kollosche Commercial sales specialist, understands why the prospect of the government changing hands can be a worrying one for professionals in his industry.

It’s a concern that’s rightly earned, in his opinion: “Government policies have a huge impact on the property sector, particularly on market confidence.”

And while both parties’ policies have the potential to change some aspects of the job for commercial agents, he’s analysed the current environment and feels confident that the federal election ultimately won’t dent market confidence this time around.

Looking at past elections, he said, is key to understanding why the country’s industry could be considered to be resting on fairly stable ground.

“The result of two defeats in 2016 and 2019 is that Labor has ditched both the negative gearing and capital gains discount policies,” Mr Grbcic explained of the biggest differentiator between this election year and the two that came before it.

Labor’s policies toward negative gearing were criticised by the Property Council of Australia and other bodies for creating uncertainty in the marketplace around the time of the last election, which they hold negatively impacted property values.

This year, the party vying to take power has shifted its focus when it comes to housing, proposing a scheme that would see the government contribute up to 40 per cent of the purchase price of a new home and up to 30 per cent of the purchase price for an existing home in exchange for equity.

The LNP, too, has zeroed in on policies that look at making buying more achievable by expanding its existing Home Guarantee Scheme.

Both of these policies, Mr Grbcic opined, will influence the commercial market to a degree, “as confidence in the residential sector flows through to the commercial market”.

And an upshot of the residential focus is that both sides have largely ignored the idea of changing commercial investment levers.

Zeroing in on the market in which he operates, Mr Grbcic said that the Gold Coast is a good example of how commercial markets are maintaining steady through this political polling cycle.

“We have seen significant price growth, particularly in the industrial market in the past two years, along with tenanted retail assets and development sites. That growth is baked in, and we don’t see any pushback on the horizon,” he commented.

“Demand remains strong in the marketplace primarily because supply is so low.” 

Ultimately, Mr Grbcic’s assessment is that “the upcoming federal election will have little to no impact on the commercial property market before or after the election. That is because the major party’s policies are largely aligned and the strong fundamentals of the Gold Coast market support strong growth regardless of who is Prime Minister”.

Could the election outcome hit commercial confidence?
Adam Grbcic reb
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