Login
iscover
Fresh data analysis shows some of the biggest winners and losers of internal migration, giving an indication of where buying and selling activity may spike or dive this financial year.
Data and analysis from the Australian Bureau of Statistics and buyers agency Propertyology shows the movements of people across Australia this year, broken down into local council areas.
The biggest losers
Sydney was also the city that recorded the largest number of departures, with 27,434 residents leaving the NSW capital in favour of other locales around the country.
The Sydney councils recording the largest losses to internal migration include Canterbury-Bankstown (3,970), Cumberland (3,714), Randwick (3,232), Georges River (2,842) and Sydney City (2,840).
While Greater Melbourne had a net gain in population from internal migration, Propertyology noted that 21 out of 27 Melbourne city councils saw a net population loss due to internal migration.
Areas that saw the biggest losses in Melbourne included Monash (3,718), Brimbank (3,232), Dandenong (2,858) and Whitehorse (2,076).
Likely contributors resulting in migration out of these areas could include housing affordability issues or city congestion, said Propertyology’s Simon Pressley.
Housing affordability pressures also appear to be affecting areas close to Sydney, he added, including Newcastle (where 837 people relocated away) and Wollongong (which lost 349 people to internal migration).
The biggest winners
While Sydney and Melbourne recorded large losses to internal migration, the Gold Coast in Queensland saw the highest level of internal migration, gaining 7,441 new residents from around Australia.
Only 10 per cent of all internal migrants to Queensland settled in Brisbane, with Mr Pressley suggesting the Brisbane labour market “will need to improve for it to be a major beneficiary of Sydney and Melbourne’s housing affordability squeeze”.
While there is much public discussion about the property market downturn in major capital cities, Mr Pressley concluded that “the opposite is happening to real estate prices in various Australian tier-2 and tier-3 cities”.
Along with the Gold Coast, the Sunshine Coast, Geelong, Maitland and Port Macquarie were all top locations for internal migration, many of which saw increased median house prices to match the growing demand.
The Sunshine Coast saw a median house price increase of 4.3 per cent in the year ended June 2018, while Geelong saw an increase of 11.9 per cent.
Mr Pressley said he believed that housing affordability and desirable lifestyle opportunities were key factors in the demand and growth of these areas.
What does it all mean?
Migration gives an indication of what markets are growing, booming and shrinking — which is pertinent knowledge for agents eyeing new growth markets and monitoring existing business.
However, Mr Pressley noted all data should be taken with a grain of salt.
For example, population growth isn’t an absolute indicator for market growth from an investment perspective, as overseas migrants very rarely buy property, and population growth includes births (which add no supply to the market) and deaths (which add some supply, but is not a significant number).
“Even if an individual town or city had zero population growth, there will still be between 3 and 5 per cent of dwelling stock that will change hands within a typical year,” Mr Pressley explained.
“Depending on the volume of dwellings listed for sale in that year, property prices may still grow.”
Mr Pressley added he believed that examining where Australians are choosing to move and settle is a better indicator for where growth is to be expected.
Newsletter
