‘A blessing and a curse’: How pandemic migration is shaping Geelong

Data from the 2021 census, published earlier this year by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), revealed that, in the March 2021 quarter, 104,000 people relocated interstate. 

However, as Australia emerges on the other side of the pandemic, the appeal of sea and tree changes has seemingly diminished. The Regional Movers Index (RMI) — produced by the Regional Australia Institute — found that net migration to Australia’s regions in the June 2022 quarter fell 35.1 per cent, 41.1 per cent lower than a year ago.

According to the RMI, Greater Geelong was the third most popular destination for regional migration during that time, accommodating 4 per cent of Australia’s regional movers across the 2021–22 financial year. 

It is a trend recently elected city mayor Trent Sullivan explained is not alien to the region. Mr Sullivan told REB, “Geelong has consistently been one of the highest local government areas for population growth.”

During the more than two years of pandemic living, the region’s population profited from its proximity to state capital, Melbourne, located just under an hour and a half away.

“There’s a lot that is accessible for living down here. Traffic isn’t as bad. There’s not as much congestion. It’s much easier to drop the kids off at school, go to work if you want to,” Mr Sullivan said.

“Moving out of the hustle and bustle of the city. Having a more affordable property. That was very appealing at the start of the pandemic.” Geelong was the second-fastest growing SA4 region during 2020–21, as its population expanded by 2.1 per cent.

“Naturally, we have seen price increases of 20 to 30 per cent; that’s definitely putting a strain. But it was this beautiful period where there was a very low barrier to market entry and people were taking advantage of that, especially young families,” he added. 

However, Mr Sullivan did describe increased internal migration as “a blessing and a curse” due to the fact that once the city exceeds its population growth target of 2.5 per cent — which it’s exceeded across the last two years — it places a “strain on the budget”.

“People think that new residents mean new ratepayers and that pays off for everything. When it really doesn’t,” he said.  

Growing net migration induces additional city planning considerations, which require incredible levels of funding. Of the $558.8 million Geelong City Council has allocated for expenditure in its 2022–23 budget, approximately 37 per cent ($208 million) is set to be spent on capital works delivery as part of the largest such program in the city’s 184-year history.

“Naturally, with more people, we need more spending,” Mr Sullivan said. “But then your infrastructure costs go up as well.” Geelong City Council’s capital works expenditure grew 15 per cent between the 2020–21 and 2021–22 budgets.

“With a higher population, there needs to be better public infrastructure, public transportation, active transportation, community grounds, biking paths, all of the above,” he added. 

“Your services need to increase because of the amount of people you are catering to. The infrastructure for playgrounds, community groups — everything communities and people need.”

In addition to the $97.1 million proposedly being spent on buildings, $45.8 million has been allocated for roads, paths, kerb and channels, and drains, while a further $31.2 million will fund parks, open space, and leisure. 

According to Mr Sullivan’s estimates, basic infrastructure in Geelong is on par with migration levels; however, he has noted that current state government roadblocks have made investment in the city difficult.

“Just over two years ago, the state government put an interim on the height controls of buildings in our CBD,” he said, adding the intention was “long-term heights” would be considered, and then implemented.

He acknowledges this “is a great thing”, explaining that the city needs “long-term planning schemes” so that the industry and government can all have confidence”.

“But we’ve had interim height controls now for two, nearly three years, and we’re still waiting on that final [decision],” he said.

Initial plans for long-term heights within the Geelong central business district were initially proposed in May 2021 as part of the Draft Central Geelong Framework Plan. These had the intention of providing a “refresh of the planning framework for central Geelong and guide future land use and development in the city centre over the next 30 years”.

However, the state government’s finalisation of the Central Geelong Framework Plan has been delayed, initially due to the departure of Victorian planning minister Richard Wynne from parliamentary duties earlier this year ahead of the upcoming state election.

The project was further delayed after Mr Wynne’s replacement, Lizzie Blandthorn, declared a conflict of interest on “planning matters involving lobbying firm Hawker Britton as her brother works for the company”, according to a September report that was cited in the Geelong Times. 

As such, the final decision on the Central Geelong Framework Plan, and subsequently any infrastructure and building plans the city council wish to embark on, has been delayed until after the upcoming state election. 

With building height decisions clearly lagging behind, the mayor conceded that it’s “the things that take five to ten years to implement that will suffer the most”. 

“That’s mostly state and federal-funded. That is the infrastructure we are really pushing,” he said.

With the city set to host the 2026 Commonwealth Games alongside Bendigo, Ballarat, and Gippsland, Mr Sullivan detailed how public transport is the major infrastructure sector the council is “campaigning for heavy investment by the state government into”.

In 2019, the then federal government, the Victorian government, and Geelong City Council announced the Geelong City Deal — a jointly-funded, 10-year plan to invest $500 million into Geelong and surrounding regions.

The deal would support the construction of the Geelong Convention and Exhibition Centre precinct, as well as the revitalisation of central Geelong, amongst other projects. 

Despite the financial injection brought on by the City Deal, Mr Sullivan stated, “the standard investment from state and federal governments would be great in a population with a growth rate of about one per cent”.

“But because we are averaging double, we are slowly slipping behind,” he said before noting the “climate and how difficult it is right now to afford large-scale, heavy investment infrastructure projects”.

It’s clear that while the surge of interest in regional hubs such as Geelong has revitalised interest in regional hotspots — and resulted in much-needed funding and infrastructure boosts, there’s a whole myriad of ways that recent changes to population will impact Australia’s societal landscape for years to come.