State showdown: Qld v NSW in 2025’s property game

Property experts have weighed in on which state has the best property market as Australia’s finest NRL players battle it out on the field for the decider.

In the battle for residential growth, land supply, and investment returns, experts have predicted a close contest in 2025, with Queensland surging ahead, while NSW continues to play the long-term strategy.

Queensland

According to Two Red Shoes mortgage broker Brett Sutton, investors seeking short-term capital gains and high rental yields have surged in Queensland’s property market over the last few years.

“Queensland remains attractive to both investors and owner-occupiers for the lower prices, short-term growth, and available space,” Sutton said.

Since 2020, Queensland has been experiencing a property boom, with median house prices increasing by 61 per cent to $790,000, according to the Real Estate Institute of Queensland data.

Similarly, median unit prices have surged by 66 per cent to $640,000.

“Queensland is sprinting ahead with Brisbane’s median house price now topping $1.17 million and units up a staggering 18.5 per cent year-on-year,” Sutton said.

“Regional Queensland is also booming – think 13.8 per cent growth for houses and 14.3 per cent for units, driven by affordability, lifestyle migration, and infrastructure investment.”

Tallpopie founding director, Darragh Heard, said that Queensland buyers have been spoiled for choice between urban living in Brisbane and a laid-back coastal way of life on the Gold Coast, where larger land blocks remain more affordable than in NSW.

Driven by infrastructure upgrades and tight rental markets, the two experts said that regional Queensland hubs such as Toowoomba, Gladstone, and Mackay have emerged as hotspots for investors.

Similarly, urban suburbs like Deeragun, Crestmead, and Kingston have surged as strong value-for-money options.

When it comes to the role of infrastructure, Heard said both states face housing shortfalls, despite major infrastructure plans, with Queensland’s strategy being more aggressive than its NSW counterparts.

“Queensland’s strategy appears focused on driving infill development to maximise existing infrastructure,” Heard said.

Similarly, Heard said the Queensland government had been leading the way in property market growth, supported by lower land costs and a streamlined approvals process.

“The tangible opportunity and speed to market is supported by a model where developers need to just ‘adhere’”, she said.

“The lesser cost of land and build, combined with a streamlined statutory process, puts Queensland at the top of the Origin leaderboard.”

NSW

According to Sutton, while the Queensland property market has been fast-paced, NSW should not be underestimated as infrastructure, demands, and global status continue to drive the state’s growth.

“Sydney’s growth is more measured,” Sutton said.

“For owner-occupiers and long-term investors, NSW’s fundamentals, stamp duty relief, higher land tax thresholds and lower property management costs make it a more strategic play, and will continue to attract strong interest.”

In June, Sydney recorded a 0.5 per cent price growth, with a median dwelling price of $1,182,000.

Similarly, Domain’s data has forecast that the city will see a 7 per cent median house price increase by the end of FY26, reaching $1.83 million.

Heard said that while the housing pressure has been greater in Sydney than in Brisbane, primarily due to the larger demand, the fringe of the city and regional areas still offer good investment opportunities.

“The north-western suburbs, while well over an hour out of the city, facilitate a more affordable house and land ownership dream for many, whereas a three-bed newbuild apartment in the city can fetch $2 million easily! It’s simply unobtainable for so many,” Heard said.

The two experts said regional hubs like Orange, Inverell, and Point Clare have been offering affordability, lifestyle appeal, and infrastructure support, while Sydney suburbs such as Tempe and Arncliffe are being positioned for uplift through major transport projects.

Heard said that despite adopting different infrastructure strategies and investing heavily, both states have been facing housing shortfalls.

“The strategy between teams differs significantly. Queensland is kicking 40/20s and getting repeat sets to attack, whereas NSW is stuck in their own 20-metre line!” she said.

“Both states have significant infrastructure plans and investment, yet both have a housing shortfall, whereas NSW doubles Queensland’s stats.”

She said that in NSW, micro-cities have been supported by new roads, public transport, and medical infrastructure.

However, Heard said government red tape continues to cause significant development delays, hindering housing targets and prompting unions and major developers to unite in calling for faster, streamlined approvals.

“In NSW developers have to ‘seek permission’ – the coaches and union are their worst enemy,” Heard said.

Verdict: Who’s the champion?

According to the experts, while Queensland has been leading in short-term growth and land availability in 2025, NSW’s supply depth and long-term strategy have given the state a lasting advantage.

“It’s a thriller. NSW is leading in supply, but Queensland’s tactics are sharp,” Heard said.

“NSW’s opportunities are greater in infill developments, with a skew towards apartments, whereas Queensland has more greenfield space available, which creates far greater opportunity for house and land.”

Sutton said NSW’s fundamentals have put the state at the top of the podium for the long-term outlook.

“So while Queensland may be scoring the flashy tries in 2025, NSW is quietly building a dynasty. And in property, that’s the game that counts,” Sutton concluded.